✅ TEAM LISTS CONFIRMED

Brisbane Broncos vs Dolphins Tips – Round 24

Finals race stakes. Broncos to consolidate top 8; Dolphins jostling for 8th. • 2025-08-16 17:30 • Suncorp Stadium

Same Game Multi
$9.95
Confidence 64%
  • Broncos 1-12 $2.95
  • Over 48.5 $1.91
  • Josiah Karapani anytime $1.85

Why: Derby leans Broncos in a tight one at Suncorp with their right edge targeting the Dolphins' left leak, producing a 1-12 profile. Open-field threats on both sides and recent high totals support Over 48.5. Karapani rides the Broncos right side which aligns with the RW concession trend.

Best Value Tryscorer

$1.85

Josiah Karapani anytime

Dolphins concede heavily to opposition right wing. Karapani sits on Brisbane's right outside Staggs and has 4 tries in 6 (67%). Price lands in the preferred $1.85-$2.15 band and matches the edge lane.

Other props: Reece Walsh anytime ($2.05), Kotoni Staggs anytime ($2.65)

Match Preview

Tempo & Territory

With fine conditions at Suncorp, expect a fast derby start. Brisbane have scored first about two-thirds of the time this season, while the Dolphins sit nearer two-fifths, pointing to early Broncos territory off Haas and Carrigan carries. The Broncos are missing first-choice halves, but a Hunt-Walters pairing should simplify shapes, lean on short-side triggers, and trust Walsh sweeping to punish retreating edges. The Dolphins were routed last week and arrive light on middle depth without Molo and Kaufusi, which can magnify ruck speed against a Broncos pack that wins post-contact. JMK and Nikorima can flip momentum if the Dolphins get repeat sets, but baseline territory tilts to Brisbane.

Edge Lanes & Try-Scoring Angles

The clearest lane is Dolphins' left-edge defence, which has leaked heavily to opposition right wing. That aligns with Brisbane's right-side strike of Staggs feeding Karapani. Karapani's recent return shows a 4-from-6 hit rate and his $1.85 sits in the sweet-spot band. Walsh remains a secondary threat on kick returns and link plays, while Staggs at centre is a roll-on beneficiary versus a reshuffled Dolphins edge with Tabuai-Fidow at centre and Fuller at fullback. Given both sides average around 4-5 tries per game and the Dolphins' totals profile is volatile to the high side, the match script supports points if completion rates hold. Our total leans to the low-50s range, above the 48.5 line.

Form, H2H & Why This SGM

The Broncos lead the head-to-head 4-1 and won 20-12 at Suncorp earlier this season. Brisbane's last five are mixed but include a 60-14 blowout; the Storm loss was distorted by in-game injuries. The Dolphins' last five include a 64 conceded, highlighting defensive fragility when the middle is compromised. With only a thin edge to the market -2.5 spread, the smarter value expression is Broncos 1-12 to capture a derby-shaped result, paired with Over 48.5 to reflect the pace and lane leaks, and Karapani anytime as the lane-led anchor. Risks are a clunky Broncos attack with new halves or a grind that drags the total under, but base case is a tight Broncos win with right-edge dividends.

Team Lists & Changes

Brisbane Broncos

Home

Ins

  • Cory Paix
  • Jesse Arthars
  • Josiah Karapani
  • Va'a Semu

Outs

  • Adam Reynolds
  • Ezra Mam
  • Selwyn Cobbo

Dolphins

Away

Ins

  • James Walsh
  • Kenneath Bromwich
  • Peter Hola
  • Trai Fuller

Outs

  • Francis Molo
  • Max Feagai
  • Felise Kaufusi (susp.)
⚡

Why This Matters

Broncos lose Reynolds and Mam shifting Ben Hunt and Billy Walters into the halves with Paix starting at 9. Dolphins reshuffle with Trai Fuller to fullback and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to centre middle depth thinned without Molo and Kaufusi.

Squad changes driving edge, totals and SGM angles.

Head to Head & Form

Brisbane Broncos — Form Notes

Last few weeks
Broncos 3-2 last 5 including 60-14 over Rabbitohs then blanked 2-22 by Storm season differential +104.

Dolphins — Form Notes

Last few weeks
Dolphins 3-2 last 5 with a 12-64 collapse vs Roosters otherwise high-scoring wins over Warriors and Cowboys.

Recent History

H2H
Broncos lead 4-1 across five meetings won 20-12 in Round 4 at Suncorp Dolphins won 40-6 in Round 26 2024.

Key Matchups

Walsh vs Fuller at the back Staggs/Karapani vs Tabuai-Fidow and Dolphins left edge Haas vs Nicholls through the middle Paix vs Marshall-King at nine.

X-Factors

Reece Walsh Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

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