✅ TEAM LISTS CONFIRMED

New Zealand Warriors vs St George Illawarra Dragons Tips – Round 24

Warriors need a result to stop a three game slide and stay in the top four race. Dragons are surging late and playing spoiler while clinging to faint finals hopes. • 2025-08-15 18:00 • Go Media Stadium

Same Game Multi
$5.90
Confidence 63%
  • Warriors -4.5 $1.88
  • Under 42.5 $1.91
  • Dallin Watene-Zelezniak anytime $1.85

Why: Warriors cover via territory and goal line defence at home. A slower Egan led tempo and Dragons recent grind support the Under. DWZ targets Dragons left edge leak which links to a Warriors margin without blowing the total out.

Best Value Tryscorer

$1.85

Dallin Watene-Zelezniak anytime try scorer

Dragons left edge defence has conceded 25 tries and ranks 14th. Warriors score 24% of their tries on the right with DWZ the primary finisher. Egan’s quick service plus Boyd and Harris Tavita shape create the last pass on short sides.

Other props: Roger Tuivasa Shek anytime ($2.00), Wayde Egan anytime ($6.00), Leka Halasima anytime ($2.70)

Match Preview

Tempo, Territory and Narrative

With three straight losses the Warriors are under the pump, but the inclusion of Wayde Egan restores their spine and should tidy ruck tempo. Tanah Boyd is a conservative half who will prioritise territory over flair, which suits a back to basics approach after a fortnight of errors and poor yardage. The Dragons have found steel, winning 22-14 and 18-12, but they still give up field position when yardage strike is missing without Moses Suli. Expect the Warriors to lean into a kick to corners game, trust their set starts through Roger Tuivasa Shek and Adam Pompey, and squeeze the middle in the last twenty. That script points to a controlled win rather than a shootout, which aligns with Warriors minus and the Under 42.5.

Edges, Lanes and Finishing

The data flags a clear pressure point on the Dragons left edge which has conceded 25 tries and ranks 14th. That is exactly where the Warriors right edge lives, with 24 percent of their tries coming on that side. Dallin Watene Zelezniak remains the premier finisher and should benefit from Egan’s fast service and Boyd’s simple shapes, especially on short sides after quick play the balls. On the other side, the Dragons right edge attack has been their best lane, but it runs into the Warriors left edge defence which ranks first, a genuine strength that can blunt St George’s favourite play. With Suli out, Dragons yardage and edge cohesion dip, further tilting the matchup toward Warriors right side points without opening the floodgates.

Line, Total and Betting Value

Market sits Warriors -4.5 and 42.5 total with head to head around $1.55. Given home ground, the Egan inclusion, and a top five Warriors defence against a Dragons attack that trends to grinding scores versus top eight sides, covering a small line is the value lean. The totals profile of both teams sits near the low forties and recent results cluster under, so Under 42.5 is supported by style and personnel. Correlating that with DWZ anytime produces a cohesive same game multi that matches the narrative. The recommended SGM is Warriors -4.5, Under 42.5, and DWZ anytime at a realistic combined price around $5.90. The path is Warriors territory control, right edge execution, and a disciplined defensive set that keeps the overall points ceiling in check.

Team Lists & Changes

New Zealand Warriors

Home

Ins

  • Wayde Egan returns at hooker. Tanah Boyd recalled at halfback. Leka Halasima starts in the back row. Eddie Ieremia-Toeava joins the bench.

Outs

  • Te Maire Martin out with concussion. Kurt Capewell out with concussion.

St George Illawarra Dragons

Away

Ins

  • Mat Feagai returns at centre. Michael Molo returns on the bench. Loko Pasifiki Tonga back on the bench.

Outs

  • Moses Suli out with a knee injury.
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Why This Matters

Egan back stabilises ruck speed and red zone shape. Boyd in for Martin trims polish but adds a steady long kick. Capewell out shifts edge work to Halasima on the right. Suli out weakens Dragons yardage and right edge defence. Feagai returns but combinations are still bedding in.

Squad changes driving edge, totals and SGM angles.

Head to Head & Form

New Zealand Warriors — Form Notes

Last few weeks
2-3 last five with three straight losses. Beaten by Bulldogs 32-14 Dolphins 20-18 and Titans 24-16. Season averages sit at 21 for and 20 against. Two recent home defeats to Titans and Dolphins underline urgency.

St George Illawarra Dragons — Form Notes

Last few weeks
2-3 last five but back to back wins over Raiders and Sharks. Season averages are 22 for and 24 against. Defence has tightened the past fortnight with scores of 18-12 and 22-14.

Recent History

H2H
Warriors lead 25-13 since 1998. Warriors won Round 10 2025 by 15-14. Dragons won Round 7 2024 by 30-12. Warriors have won three of the past five meetings.

Key Matchups

DWZ versus Dragons left edge. Wayde Egan versus Jacob Liddle around the ruck. Boyd and Harris Tavita kicking game versus Flanagan and Sloan backfield. RTS yardage carries at Feagai’s edge.

X-Factors

Wayde Egan for tempo. Tyrell Sloan for counter punch. Dallin Watene Zelezniak for finishing. Leka Halasima for hard running lines.

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