✅ TEAM LISTS CONFIRMED

North Queensland Cowboys vs Newcastle Knights Tips – Round 24

Pride and selection stakes; finals unlikely. • 2025-08-17 16:05 • Queensland Country Bank Stadium

Same Game Multi
$6.20
Confidence 68%
  • Cowboys -7.5 $1.91
  • Over 46.5 $1.91
  • Semi Valemei anytime $2.00

Why: Cowboys pack should win territory for Dearden and Clifford. Right-edge shapes can expose Knights left defence, linking to Valemei finishes. Both teams concede plenty, and fine conditions support points.

Best Value Tryscorer

$2.00

Semi Valemei anytime

Knights concede frequently to the right wing and arrive with a reshuffled left edge. With Cowboys right-side shapes and aerial kicks Valemei profiles strongly at near even money.

Other props: Tom Dearden anytime ($3.50), Greg Marzhew anytime ($2.40)

Match Preview

Heading 1

Tempo and territory - Cowboys to control the middle and lift scoring rate. With McLean back and Cotter and Taumalolo driving post-contact, the Cowboys should own early yardage and ruck speed. Newcastle arrive on a five-game skid and debut a rookie fullback in Votano behind a pack that has struggled to slow play-the-ball. That sets a field position edge for Tom Dearden to kick to corners and force repeat sets. The Knights do have strike out wide, but their new halves pairing needs time and their exit sets have been messy. In fine Townsville conditions on a good surface, pace should lift above average, pointing toward a points-friendly script and rewarding second-phase from Robson around the ruck.

Heading 2

Lanes - Cowboys right edge and aerials vs Knights left defence; counterpunch via Knights left wing. Knights have conceded heavily to opposition right wings and middles, and their left edge is reshuffled with Best outside new combinations. That suits Cowboys right-side patterns with Dearden and Clifford hitting short to Nanai or going out the back to Laybutt and Valemei. Valemei profiles well on kicks and quick shifts, matching the conceded-by-position data. On the flip side, the Cowboys left-edge defence has leaked to opposition left wings, so Marzhew remains a live chance as a counter-score that still fits an Over narrative. Expect the middle to fatigue late, opening space for support lines from Drinkwater.

Heading 3

Form, H2H, and how changes impact the odds - tight but higher scoring with Cowboys to shade it. Cowboys have only one win in five but have posted big totals in open games; Knights are 0-5 with heavy concessions to top-eight sides. H2H leans to North Queensland and Townsville travel has been unkind to Newcastle. McLean’s return plus a deeper bench should steady the Cowboys’ middle, while Knights lose Crossland and roll out Cogger-Arthur for direction. The combination of territory edge, right-edge lane match-up, and dry track supports Cowboys -7.5 and Over 46.5. Our SGM ties directly to that story - Cowboys cover on the back of forward dominance, total clears with both sides finding space, and Valemei finishes on the favoured right edge.

Team Lists & Changes

North Queensland Cowboys

Home

Ins

  • Harrison Edwards, Jordan McLean, Karl Lawton, Thomas Mikaele, Viliami Vailea

Outs

  • Coen Hess

Newcastle Knights

Away

Ins

  • Brodie Jones, Connor Votano, Jack Hetherington, Jackson Hastings, James Schiller, Matthew Arthur

Outs

  • Phoenix Crossland, Tyson Gamble
⚡

Why This Matters

McLean returns to stabilise the middle and Lawton Mikaele deepen the rotation while Hess is suspended. Knights debut Votano at fullback move Gagai to centre and pair Cogger with Jake Arthur Crossland and Gamble are out. Expect Cowboys to control ruck speed with Cotter and Taumalolo.

Squad changes driving edge, totals and SGM angles.

Head to Head & Form

North Queensland Cowboys — Form Notes

Last few weeks
One win from last five volatile totals with 38 for vs Dragons and 43 against vs Dolphins.

Newcastle Knights — Form Notes

Last few weeks
No wins from last five heavy defeats to Panthers and Raiders with attack inconsistent under new halves.

Recent History

H2H
Cowboys have won four of the past five vs Knights. Knights have not won in Townsville since 2015.

Key Matchups

Taumalolo and Cotter vs Saifiti and Thompson in the middle Dearden and Clifford vs Cogger and Arthur Cowboys right edge vs Knights left edge.

X-Factors

Scott Drinkwater Tom Dearden Bradman Best Reece Robson

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