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Penrith Panthers vs Melbourne Storm Tips – Round 24

Top 4 clash, potential grand final preview • • CommBank Stadium

By FreeMultiTips • 22 Aug 2025, 10:10 pm •AEST

Same Game Multi

$5.80

Confidence 78%

Panthers -5.5
Under 42.5 Total Points
Brian To'o Anytime Try Scorer

Why: Nine-game winning streak meets a Storm side missing their elite fullback. Papenhuyzen's absence removes Melbourne's most dangerous counter-attacker, forcing them into a grinding style that suits Penrith. The data shows Storm's left edge defense concedes 41% of their tries, perfectly aligning with To'o's right wing attack. Without Paps' speed out the back, Melbourne will struggle to score quickly, keeping the total low while Penrith's structured attack grinds out a comfortable win.

Best Value Tryscorer

$2.10

Brian To'o Anytime Try Scorer

Storm's left edge defense is their achilles heel conceding 41% of all tries. To'o operates on Penrith's right directly opposing this weakness. With Seve playing his first game in months and Meaney adjusting to fullback To'o should feast. He scored a double against Storm in Round 3.

Other props: Casey McLean anytime ($2.70), Xavier Coates anytime ($2.10), Dylan Edwards anytime ($3.00), Grant Anderson anytime ($2.50)

Match Preview

Territory Control Sets The Tone

Penrith's forward pack has been devastating during their nine-game winning streak, averaging over 2000 running metres per game with 700+ post-contact metres. Without Papenhuyzen's game-breaking speed from the back, Melbourne will struggle to escape their own end against this relentless Panthers machine. The kicking game becomes crucial here, with Nathan Cleary's precision against a makeshift Storm back three of Meaney, Seve, and Chan. Cleary will pepper the corners early, testing Seve's positioning after his long layoff and Meaney's adjustment to fullback. This territorial dominance should see Penrith controlling 55%+ possession, forcing Melbourne into an energy-sapping defensive workload that leaves them vulnerable late. The Panthers' ability to maintain pressure through repeat sets and force dropouts has been exceptional, and without their elite fullback to relieve pressure, Storm will find themselves defending their line repeatedly.

Edge Warfare Decides The Result

The statistical mismatch on Storm's left edge defense (conceding 41% of tries) against Penrith's right-side attack creates the game's most exploitable avenue. Brian To'o has been devastating in this exact scenario before, scoring a double when these teams met in Round 3. Marion Seve's return after a four-month absence puts him under immediate pressure against the NRL's most structured edge attack. The Panthers will target this channel relentlessly through Cleary's cross-field kicks, Talagi's short balls, and Edwards' sweeping plays. On the opposite edge, Casey McLean's 53% try-scoring rate will draw defensive attention, creating more space for To'o. Melbourne's reshuffled backline lacks the cohesion to handle Penrith's multi-layered edge attacks, especially in the second half when fatigue sets in from all the defensive work. This edge dominance supports both the line bet and To'o as an anytime scorer.

Defensive Grind Keeps Score Low

Both teams pride themselves on elite defense, but the absence of Papenhuyzen fundamentally changes Melbourne's scoring potential. The Storm averaged 30 points per game with Paps, but in games without him, that drops significantly as they lose their primary line-break threat. Penrith's defense has been suffocating during their streak, conceding just 12.4 points per game over the last five weeks. The wet, dewy conditions typical of Sydney night games in August favor the defenders, making handling difficult and reducing second-phase play. Melbourne's high error rate (15+ in multiple recent games) will be exacerbated without their fullback's ability to clean up loose balls. With both teams likely to complete around 75-78%, scoring opportunities will be limited. The game shapes as a defensive arm-wrestle where field position becomes paramount, and with Penrith controlling territory through their superior kicking game, they'll grind out a victory that lands under the total while covering the spread through their systematic edge attacks that eventually break Melbourne's resistance.

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