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South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Parramatta Eels Tips – Round 24

Bunnies fighting to avoid the spoon; Eels keep faint finals hopes alive. • 2025-08-16 19:35 • Allianz Stadium

Same Game Multi

$8.90

Confidence 64%

Eels -7.5 $1.90
Under 47.5 $1.90
Will Penisini anytime $2.75

Why: Same-story build: Eels control ruck and field position, Moses targets Rabbitohs left edge; a measured win keeps points under while right-edge traffic finds Penisini.

Best Value Tryscorer

$2.75

Will Penisini anytime

Rabbitohs left-edge defence has conceded heavily and is ranked in the bottom tier Moses-to-right shapes and cross-field kicks isolate Tass and Bentley-Hape for the centre's crash line.

Other props: Joash Papalii anytime ($2.50), Zac Lomax anytime ($1.70)

Match Preview

Heading 1

Territory and tempo. The context is clear: South Sydney snapped a long drought but now omit Latrell Mitchell, while Parramatta roll in unchanged and hunting a must-win. With Junior Paulo and Jmaine Hopgood laying a platform and Mitchell Moses steering, the Eels are set up to own yardage and last-tackle quality. The Rabbitohs halves Jamie Humphreys and Ashton Ward are honest but inexperienced, so expect a simpler plan through Jai Arrow and second-phase off Brandon Smith from the bench. Fine conditions and a good Allianz surface lift completion, but territory should still lean Eels, who have finished better against bottom-nine sides. Scoreboard flow projects Eels to control early, Bunnies chasing from behind, tightening up the second half.

Heading 2

Lanes where points come from. The mismatch is Parramatta right attack against Souths left defence. Eels have produced a quarter of their tries down the right, and the Rabbitohs left edge sits in the bottom tier for concessions. That points to Will Penisini and Zac Lomax off Moses kicks and short balls. Counter-risk is Alex Johnston on the Bunnies left: the Eels have conceded heavily to opposition left wing this season and AJ has a long strike history in this matchup and needs three to draw level with Ken Irvines record. Still, Souths lose punch without Latrell and Cody Walker is only named on the bench, thinning their shape. Expect Eels edge dominance to outweigh isolated Bunnies moments.

Heading 3

How that maps to value. Side: with Eels favoured around a converted try and our margin close to that, the standard -7.5 at near even money fits. Total: despite fine weather, a controlled tempo and Souths reduced strike make Under 47.5 the lean. Try-scorer: we avoid short wingers and take the lane-correlated, non-wing option in Will Penisini at a backable price. The SGM tells one story Eels platform and Moses direction to the right, a measured victory, and centre finish which aligns with -7.5, Under 47.5, and Penisini anytime.

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