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Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles vs Dolphins Tips – Round 25

Manly must win to stay in finals race; Dolphins pushing for 8th; near-even market. • 2025-08-23 15:00 • 4 Pines Park

Same Game Multi

$7.80

Confidence 62%

Sea Eagles -1.5 $2.10
Over 47.5 $1.91
Tolutau Koula anytime $2.10

Why: Home edge on right lane vs Dolphins' left D; expect Manly to convert territory into points; high-tempo Dolphins keep total live; Koula form streak at 4 Pines aligns.

Best Value Tryscorer

$2.10

Tolutau Koula anytime

On an eight-game try streak at 4 Pines Manly's right-edge attack ranks 4th Dolphins' left-edge defence ranks 17th price in sweet spot.

Other props: Jason Saab anytime ($2.00), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow anytime ($2.05), Jamayne Isaako anytime ($1.95)

Match Preview

Tempo & Territory

Expect a lively contest at 4 Pines Park. Manly's attack has misfired across the past month, but their right edge remains the clearest route to points, with Saab on the right wing and Talau at right centre outside Daly Cherry-Evans. The Dolphins concede heavily on their left edge, and with Hammer moving back to fullback they regain punch on kick returns and early-set momentum. Kaufusi and Molo return to stiffen the middle, but Nicholls reverts to the bench which may flatten their second rotation. Manly will kick early to the corners, look for yardage sets that finish right, and try to isolate Dolphins' left-side decisions near the 20. The Dolphins' overall attack has been free-scoring lately and they are comfortable in a track meet, so territory will swing. Fine conditions and a quick surface point to line breaks on edges rather than a grind.

Form, Stakes & H2H

Ladder pressure is real: Manly have slipped to 10th after four straight losses with just 32 points total; the Dolphins sit 9th and have averaged 26 points per game across their past four, despite heavy defeats to the Roosters and a 66-point derby total vs Brisbane. Manly still start fast overall, scoring first in 81% of games, and DCE reaches game 350 which should sharpen focus. Head to head is 1-1: Manly's 58-18 blowout in 2023, Dolphins 30-24 in 2024. Team news matters: Garrick is out, pushing Talau to start and Schoupp to the bench; Jake Trbojevic remains sidelined. For the Dolphins, Hammer at fullback plus Kaufusi and Molo returning improves their go-forward and contact. Travel is a small negative for the Dolphins, who are 3-from-8 outside Queensland.

Lanes & Bets

The clearest lane is Manly's right attack (ranked 4th, 39% of tries) into the Dolphins' left defence (ranked 17th conceded), making Koula and Saab live. The Dolphins' attack ranks 3rd for tries per game and can answer back, so a total in the high 40s is on script. With a near pick'em H2H, the home edge and lane mismatch nudge to Sea Eagles -1.5. The same script supports Over 47.5 in fine weather. Featured ATS is Tolutau Koula at $2.10 given his 4 Pines streak and matchup. Alternate leans: Saab anytime at $2.00, Hammer anytime at $2.05, Isaako at $1.95 if you prefer Dolphins exposure.

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