✅ TEAM LISTS CONFIRMED

Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs Tips – Round 25

Top-4 seeding; home final race; Storm fortress at AAMI. • 2025-08-22 20:00 • AAMI Park

Same Game Multi
$11.40
Confidence 63%
  • Storm 1-12 $2.75
  • Under 43.5 $1.92
  • Grant Anderson anytime $2.40

Why: Storm control ruck and yardage; right-edge strike generates points but Dogs scramble limits blowout; narrow margin plus total under aligns with an arm-wrestle; Anderson finish complements right-edge script.

Best Value Tryscorer

$2.40

Grant Anderson anytime

Storm right-side ranks first for tries Bulldogs left-edge concedes more on LW Anderson at RW fits the raid and price band.

Other props: Xavier Coates anytime ($1.67), Eliesa Katoa anytime ($3.00), Harry Grant anytime ($4.50), Jacob Kiraz anytime ($2.50), Enari Tuala anytime ($2.90)

Match Preview

Tempo & Territory

AAMI Park tends to reward field position and kicking accuracy, and this shapes as a tight Friday-night arm-wrestle. Melbourne will lean into their ruck craft through Harry Grant to win ruck speed, then play to width off quick ball. Munster listed at fullback gives them a second-receiver threat sweeping to either side, but the Storm have been most clinical down their right corridor where the pass selection is crisp and the kick variations to corners are elite. Canterbury’s response is yardage discipline and kick pressure; Burton and Galvin must turn Melbourne around and keep them starting sets inside the 10. If the Dogs can hold their catch-and-carry on exits and avoid early-tackle errors, they can drag the tempo down and make it a one-score grind. With fine weather and a good surface, completion should be high, but both defensive systems are well-drilled, pointing more to territory-led scoring than end-to-end chaos.

Form, Stakes & H2H

The Storm arrive off a golden point win over Penrith and have banked four wins from their past five, including authoritative efforts against the Broncos and Eels. Their only recent slip at home was a tight one, and AAMI has again been a fortress. The Bulldogs have dropped two of three, blitzed by the Roosters last week after a strong run, but they still sit third and have been resilient against quality sides. H2H leans heavily to Melbourne in recent years with eight wins from nine, and the Round 6, 2024 meeting here finished 16-14 to the Storm, which mirrors the likely shape: physical, field-possession focused, and decided late. Ladder stakes are real for both - Melbourne chasing a top-two finish and the Dogs eyeing a home final. Expect intensity around the middle third and a premium on last-tackle options.

Lanes & Bets

Lane data is decisive. The Storm’s right-side attack ranks first, with heavy production to the wings, while the Bulldogs’ left-edge has leaked more on LW. That sets up Grant Anderson as the value finisher at his price point, with Coates still a major aerial threat on the opposite flank. For Canterbury, their best path is right side through Kiraz/Xerri with Burton’s cross-field and grubber kicks testing Melbourne’s left-edge which has been more giveable than the right. Even so, Melbourne’s ruck speed and set-end polish should shade the middle count, keeping the Dogs to limited red-zone looks. The script lands on a narrow Storm victory rather than a blowout, and total points clustered in the low 40s given the Dogs’ season-long defensive resolve. Betting-wise, the margin band 1-12 aligns with the grind, Under 43.5 matches the tempo and defensive profiles, and Anderson anytime ties directly to the Storm right-edge lane advantage without overpaying for correlation.

Team Lists & Changes

Melbourne Storm

Home

Ins

  • Kane Bradley, Lazarus Vaalepu, Nelson Asofa-Solomona, Ryan Papenhuyzen, Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown

Outs

  • Shawn Blore

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

Away

Ins

  • Daniel Suluka-Fifita, Jake Turpin, Marcelo Montoya, Sitili Tupouniua, Toby Sexton

Outs

  • Jethro Rinakama
⚡

Why This Matters

Munster named at FB with Papenhuyzen in reserves NAS in reserves Blore out Dogs monitor Tupouniua and Montoya from reserves overall structures unchanged.

Squad changes driving edge, totals and SGM angles.

Head to Head & Form

Melbourne Storm — Form Notes

Last few weeks
W4 of last 5 22-18 PEN (GP) 22-2 BRI 16-10 PAR 34-30 SYD 16-18 MAN

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs — Form Notes

Last few weeks
L-W-L-W-W 12-32 SYD 32-14 WAR 14-28 WST 42-4 MAN 20-18 SGI

Recent History

H2H
Storm have won 8 of last 9 overall last meeting Storm 16-14 (R6 2024) Bulldogs last beat Storm 26-12 (R2 2023).

Key Matchups

Storm right edge (Anderson-Seve-Katoa) vs Dogs left edge (Tuala-Xerri-Kikau) Harry Grant vs Bailey Hayward around the ruck Burton-Galvin kicking duel vs Munster backfield.

X-Factors

Harry Grant Cameron Munster Viliame Kikau

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