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Newcastle Knights vs Brisbane Broncos Tips – Round 25

Broncos chase top-4 security; Knights playing for pride; Ben Hunt 350th adds focus for Brisbane. • SUN 2:00 PM AEST • McDonald Jones Stadium

By FreeMultiTips • 23 Aug 2025, 12:04 pm •AEST

Same Game Multi

$7.40

Confidence 68%

Broncos 13+ $2.18
Over 45.5 $1.91
Josiah Karapani anytime try scorer $1.91

Why: Right-edge Brisbane game script; Knights leaking through middle and edges; Broncos to lead early and extend; 13+ aligns with Over and Karapani finishing; prices from majors with modest correlation haircut.

Best Value Tryscorer

$1.91

Josiah Karapani anytime try scorer

Knights left-side defence has conceded 25 tries while Broncos right-side attack owns 23 Karapani strike 5/7 (71%) price sits in preferred $1.85-$2.15 band.

Other props: Reece Walsh anytime try scorer ($2.00), Deine Mariner anytime try scorer ($1.96), Kotoni Staggs anytime try scorer ($2.25)

Match Preview

Tempo & Territory

Expect Brisbane to own yardage and ruck speed via Payne Haas and Patrick Carrigan, with Cory Paix and Tyson Smoothy rolling the middle. Phoenix Crossland’s return lifts Newcastle’s tempo but their pack has struggled to win contact, forcing long kicks from Jack Cogger and Jake Arthur. Weather is fine, so Brisbane can shift earlier to edges and press with Reece Walsh out the back. Broncos have scored first in 62% of games vs 29% for the Knights, so a front-running Brisbane is the base script. Hunt and Walters will kick to corners and attack Newcastle’s back three, while Walsh’s support through broken play threatens once second-phase sticks. If Knights are to compete, they must slow rucks around Saifiti-Thompson and get early ball to Best/Marzhew on their left; otherwise territory will compound quickly.

Form, Stakes & H2H

Newcastle limp in off six straight defeats, conceding 130 points across their last three (38, 48, 44 in recent big losses) and losing 9 of their last 10 at McDonald Jones Stadium. Brisbane have gone W L W L W across the past five, including a derby surge to beat the Dolphins and a 60-14 eruption over the Rabbitohs. Ladder stakes are one-way: Broncos sit in the top-eight hunt with eyes on the top four; Knights are 16th and playing for pride. H2H tilts Brisbane: they’ve won the last five meetings (most recently 30-14 in 2024). Ben Hunt’s 350th adds leadership and focus to a side already superior in differential and strike.

Lanes & Bets

The lane map is decisive. Knights’ left-side defence has leaked 25 tries; Broncos’ right-side attack has 23, making Josiah Karapani and Kotoni Staggs high-value finishers. Broncos’ left wing lane is also productive (19), putting Deine Mariner on the shortlist against a Knights right edge that has conceded 12 to right wingers. Through the middle, Newcastle have conceded 17 tries to props, which helps Brisbane dominate possession even if it doesn’t always translate to prop scoring. Expect Brisbane 30-38 points with Knights 10-16, hence Over 45.5. The correlated build is Broncos 13+ with the Over and a right-edge ATS. Featured prop is Karapani at $1.91 given his 71% strike and the Knights’ left-edge issues. Reece Walsh at $2.00 is a clean second option given his 7 tries in 15 and constant support lines. Overall, Brisbane’s superior pack, edges, and first-try profile point to a comfortable road win with points flowing on the edges.

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