Parramatta Eels vs Sydney Roosters Tips – Round 25
Roosters push for finals; Eels playing for pride. • SAT 7:35 PM AEST • CommBank Stadium
By FreeMultiTips • •AEST
- Roosters -9.5 $1.91
- Over 47.5 $1.91
- Junior Tupou anytime $1.94
Why: Roosters tempo and middle ascendancy should create 5+ try output; Eels can contribute enough to clear the number; right-edge supply for Tupou ties the story.
Best Value Tryscorer
Junior Tupou anytime
Other props: Mark Nawaqanitawase anytime ($1.65), James Tedesco anytime ($2.15), Zac Lomax anytime ($2.15)
Match Preview
Tempo & Territory
Roosters should control yardage and start sets on the front foot. Their strike spine of Tedesco and Walker has them scoring first in 71% of games, while the Eels open the scoring only 38% of the time. Through the middle, Collins and Radley have been reliable in contact and quick play-the-balls, which should pin Parramatta in their end and set up red-zone repeats. Moses can flip territory with his long kicking, but if Parra are defending back-to-back sets the Roosters shapes to both edges come into play. Recent outputs suggest a brisk pace: the Roosters average 4.6 tries per game and the Eels 3.2, setting a base near the high 40s for total points. Eels can manufacture moments via Lomax kick targets and Addo-Carr in space, but their defensive resilience against top-8 sides has wavered late in halves. Expect Sydney to own more possession, win yardage, and spend longer in good-ball, with Parra still capable of punching back enough to keep the total healthy.
Form, Stakes & H2H
Ladder pressure is squarely on the Roosters (8th) who have surged with wins over the Sea Eagles, Dolphins and Bulldogs, while the Eels (14th) have kept swinging despite no finals carrot, splitting tight ones with the Broncos and Cowboys and pushing the Rabbitohs. Versus top-8 opponents the Eels have only one win from ten, whereas the Roosters are 7 from 10 against bottom-9 teams. Head-to-head leans Sydney with 4 of the last 5, including 38-14 in Round 24 of 2024. Team news matters: Iongi resumes at fullback, Papalii at 6 and Walker to lock for Parra. For the Roosters, Junior Tupou replaces the concussed Daniel Tupou, Wong returns on an edge, Whyte shifts to prop and Leniu adds punch off the bench. The stakes read finals drive for the visitors and pride for the hosts, with recent momentum and matchup metrics favoring the Tricolours by around 10-12.
Lanes & Bets
The clearest lane is the Roosters right edge: they have 30 tries down that corridor (3rd in the NRL) and they meet an Eels left-side that has conceded 19. That sets up Junior Tupou as the best-priced finisher in the sweet $1.85-$2.15 band. The opposite lane also rates: the Eels concede 20 to LW this season, so Nawaqanitawase is live albeit at shorter odds. Parramatta still pose threats via Lomax aerially and Addo-Carr in broken play, which supports a points-positive script rather than a grind. With Sydney controlling territory and generating 5+ try potential, the recommended side is Roosters -9.5, paired with Over 47.5 to reflect tempo and both teams having strike. The SGM aligns perfectly: Roosters -9.5, Over 47.5, and Junior Tupou anytime, all telling the same story of Roosters field position, right-edge supply, and enough Eels involvement to lift the total.
Team Lists & Changes
Parramatta Eels
HomeIns
- Dan Keir, Dean Hawkins, Haze Dunster, Joey Lussick, Toni Mataele
Outs
- Luca Moretti
Sydney Roosters
AwayIns
- Junior Tupou, Sandon Smith, Siua Wong, Taylor Losalu, Tom Rodwell
Outs
- Daniel Tupou
Why This Matters
Squad changes driving edge, totals and SGM angles.
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