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Penrith Panthers vs Canberra Raiders Tips – Round 25

Panthers chase top-4; Raiders hunt minor premiership. • 2025-08-22 18:00 • Glen Willow Oval

Same Game Multi

$8.10

Confidence 63%

Raiders +3.5 $1.91
Over 41.5 $1.89
Xavier Savage anytime $2.45

Why: Right-edge Raiders strike targets Panthers left D; fine track supports points; line covers a tight finish.

Best Value Tryscorer

$2.45

Xavier Savage anytime

Raiders right-side attack ranks 2nd with 31 tries Panthers left-edge defence has conceded 21 price above $2.40 fair for a high-pace edge game.

Other props: Matthew Timoko anytime ($3.50), Brian To'o anytime ($2.10), Casey McLean anytime ($2.95), Hudson Young anytime ($3.45)

Match Preview

Tempo & Territory

Fine weather and a good Mudgee track point to a clean-ball, territory-first battle. Expect both halves to kick early to corners - Cleary for repeat sets and right-edge shape, Fogarty for contestables and touch-finders to slow Penrith’s back-three exits. The middle is high quality: Leota and Smith will try to quicken ruck speed for Cleary, while Tapine, Papalii and Horsburgh look to win first contact and own the yardage sets. If Yeo is cleared, his tempo control and link passing adds shape to Penrith’s edges. Canberra’s best go-forward window is the opening 25 and post-HT surge; Penrith’s is the grindy middle-third where they compress and kick on tackle five. Overall pace projects medium-fast, with field position traded rather than gifted, but enough red-zone trips on both sides to keep the total live.

Form, Stakes & H2H

Raiders sit 1st and can take a big step toward the minor premiership; Panthers are 5th and chasing a return to the top four. Penrith’s nine-game run ended in golden point against the Storm, but they have still won four of five. Canberra have also won four of five, outmuscling Manly before the bye. Recent H2H leans Penrith (five of the past six), though the Raiders did grab a 22-18 win in Round 25, 2024. The country venue matters: Raiders are 0-2 in Mudgee, while Penrith travel strongly and typically handle neutral settings. Individual form lines are pointed - Casey McLean has six tries in his last five; Ethan Strange has eight in nine - and both teams have reliable game-managers in Cleary and Fogarty to finish sets. Stakes and form suggest a tight margin either way.

Lanes & Bets

Lane data says both edges can trade. Penrith’s left has produced - LW 17, LC 14 - and Canberra’s concession profile shows vulnerability to left wing (16) and right wing (10), so To’o and McLean remain threats. The clearer edge, however, is Canberra’s right-side attack - ranked near the top with 31 tries - running at Penrith’s left defence which has conceded 21. That brings Timoko’s crash lines and Savage’s speed into play. With fine conditions and two top-5 packs, the script supports points from edge sequences and quick ruck shifts rather than grind-only footy. Betting-wise, the spread is small and the matchup is coin-flip territory on a neutral track, so taking the dog with the start aligns with the data while pairing it with the total. The correlated build is Raiders +3.5, Over 41.5, and Savage anytime, all telling the same story of Canberra’s right-edge finding a try in a tight, points-friendly contest.

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