✅ TEAM LISTS CONFIRMED

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs St George Illawarra Dragons Tips – Round 25

Johnston chasing try record; Bennett 100th game for Souths; Bunnies chase three straight; Dragons cling to faint finals hope. • 2025-08-21 19:50 • Accor Stadium

Same Game Multi
$6.85
Confidence 60%
  • Dragons +1.5 $1.75
  • Over 41.5 $1.91
  • Christian Tuipulotu anytime $2.15

Why: Dog plus Over via Dragons right edge targeting Souths left D; Tuipulotu is the lane; dry track and Cook quick rucks boost tempo; PYO line protects a one score result.

Best Value Tryscorer

$2.15

Christian Tuipulotu anytime

Dragons right side scores 28 percent of tries Rabbitohs left defence ranks 15 with heavy leakage price sits in preferred band and aligns with the game script.

Other props: Alex Johnston anytime ($1.85), Clinton Gutherson anytime ($3.40)

Match Preview

Tempo & Territory

Fine conditions and a good surface at Accor point to clean sets and decent tempo. The middle sets the tone early with Klemmer and Guler up against Keppie and a returning Koloamatangi, whose leg speed can flip momentum and invite second phase. Souths carry bench spark through Brandon Smith and Cody Walker, but their reshuffle leaves Tallis Duncan defending at centre which stresses the left edge. Dragons have started better on average and are more likely to earn the first field position through Cook's ruck speed and Flanagan's kicking to corners. Expect a territory tug-of-war that opens up edges once fatigue sets in, with both teams preferring to finish on the left-to-right sweep.

Form, Stakes & H2H

Ladders say Dragons 12th and Souths 15th, yet both have shown recent grit. Souths ride back-to-back 20-18 and 20-16 wins after a rough stretch, chasing three straight for the first time this season. Dragons toppled the Sharks and Raiders before tight losses to the Warriors and Bulldogs, so their baseline has been competitive. Venue trend leans Souths: Dragons have not won at Accor since 2013, and Souths edged the Round 2 meeting 25-24. Team news is pivotal. Souths regain Koloamatangi and Hubner but still lack Latrell, and the makeshift backline remains vulnerable. Dragons lose de Belin, Sele and Stewart to HIA which dents the pack, yet Gutherson at 1 and Cook at 9 stabilise the spine. Overall form tilts this toward a narrow margin rather than a blowout.

Lanes & Bets

The clearest lane is Dragons right edge into Souths left defence. Data shows Dragons right side contributing a strong share of tries, while Souths left defence ranks poorly and now includes a back-rower at centre. Christian Tuipulotu profiles as the best priced finisher in that channel at around the low twos. Souths still manufacture chances on their left through Johnston, so trading sets should keep the total live. Recent totals cluster around the low 40s and with fine weather a small lean to Over 41.5 is justified. With Dragons' forward outs narrowing go-forward but the edge mismatch offsetting, the projected margin sits near pick em with a slight Dragons skew, so a pick-your-own Dragons +1.5 in the 1.75 band fits the script. The correlated same game multi is Dragons +1.5, Over 41.5, and Tuipulotu anytime.

Team Lists & Changes

South Sydney Rabbitohs

Home

Ins

  • Fletcher Myers, Haizyn Mellars, Keaon Koloamatangi, Lachlan Hubner, Lewis Dodd, Salesi Ataata

Outs

  • Bayleigh Bentley-Hape, Liam Le Blanc

St George Illawarra Dragons

Away

Ins

  • Ben Murdoch-Masila, Blake Lawrie, Lachlan Ilias, Nathan Lawson, Raymond Faitala-Mariner, Viliami Fifita

Outs

  • Hame Sele, Hamish Stewart, Jack De Belin
⚡

Why This Matters

Koloamatangi returns at prop Hubner back at lock Duncan covers centre which weakens left edge D Latrell still out. Dragons lose de Belin Sele and Stewart to HIA back row reshuffle Gutherson at 1 and Cook at 9 steady the spine.

Squad changes driving edge, totals and SGM angles.

Head to Head & Form

South Sydney Rabbitohs — Form Notes

Last few weeks
W v Eels 20-16 W v Titans 20-18 L v Broncos 14-60 L v Sharks 12-14 L v Panthers 10-30.

St George Illawarra Dragons — Form Notes

Last few weeks
L v Warriors 10-14 W v Sharks 22-14 W v Raiders 18-12 L v Cowboys 32-38 L v Bulldogs 18-20.

Recent History

H2H
Souths 3 of last 5 Dragons have not won at Accor since 2013 Round 2 2025 Souths 25-24.

Key Matchups

Tuipulotu and Feagai vs Duncan and Tass on Souths left middle battle Klemmer and Guler vs Keppie and Koloamatangi Cook vs Havili and Smith around the ruck.

X-Factors

Keaon Koloamatangi Clinton Gutherson Cody Walker

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