Wests Tigers vs North Queensland Cowboys Tips – Round 25
Tigers must win to keep finals hopes alive; Cowboys unchanged and looking to finish strong. • SUN 4:05 PM AEST • Leichhardt Oval
By FreeMultiTips • •AEST
- Over 48.5 $1.85
- Wests Tigers 1-12 $3.50
- Starford To'a Anytime Tryscorer $2.90
Why: Right-edge game script at Leichhardt: Tigers 1-12 preferred over H2H for price; Over supported by both teams' recent scoring profiles; ATS aligns with Cowboys left-edge concessions; correlation haircut applied.
Best Value Tryscorer
Starford To'a Anytime
Other props: Jeral Skelton Anytime ($1.83), Braidon Burns Anytime ($2.10), Scott Drinkwater Anytime ($2.50), Jeremiah Nanai Anytime ($3.60)
Match Preview
Tempo & Territory
Expect a positive-territory start from the Tigers behind May and Pole, with Koroisau prodding short sides and Luai kicking early to pin the Cowboys in corners. Leichhardt tends to amplify momentum and the Tigers have ridden that wave twice this year, scraping past Cronulla and the Titans at the death. North Queensland will look to even the ruck via Cotter’s engine and Taumalolo’s post-contact, then shift to Drinkwater sweeping left. Dearden’s long kicking competes with Luai/Doueihi for yardage, but the Tigers’ back-three of Turuva, Bula, and Skelton have been getting sets started cleanly of late. Pace profile leans medium-high: both teams average around 3.4-3.8 tries per game and concede 4.3-4.8, so sustained red-zone time should produce points.
Form, Stakes & H2H
Wests arrive 3-2 across their last five (wins over Bulldogs and Sea Eagles; tight escape vs Titans), while the Cowboys are 2-3 but fresh off a 38-4 statement against Newcastle. The ladder stakes are clear: Tigers (11th) sit four points off eighth with three to play, making this a must-win. H2H is mixed: the Cowboys have taken six of the last seven overall, yet the Tigers have historically enjoyed Leichhardt, winning nine of the last 11 there against North Queensland. Recent meeting in Round 13 finished Cowboys 32-28, underscoring the high-variance, high-total nature of this matchup. Individual form lines matter: Skelton has 6 tries in his last 4; Bula has 4 in his past 3 vs the Cowboys; Nanai owns 8 in his last 7 vs the Tigers.
Lanes & Bets
The clearest lane is Wests’ right edge: 28 tries (39% of Tigers’ total) against a Cowboys left edge that has conceded 23. That points to Skelton and To’a as prime finishers with Luai/Doueihi supplying shape; our featured play is Starford To’a anytime at a premium price. Cowboys’ best lane is their left (Burns/Vailea) attacking at Tigers’ right defence, so Drinkwater and Dearden can still generate response points, reinforcing an Over lean around 48.5. Script: Tigers control more yardage, win the middle rotation narrowly through Twal/Hunt minutes, and cash the right edge; Cowboys punch back via Dearden/Drinkwater left shifts. Betting takeaways: side edge is modest, so we prefer Wests -2.5 rather than a bigger handicap; total leans Over 48.5; same game multi builds around Over 48.5, Tigers 1-12, and To’a anytime to keep correlation with the right-edge storyline.
Team Lists & Changes
Wests Tigers
HomeIns
- Brent Naden, Kit Laulilii, Krystian Mapapalangi, Luke Laulilii
Outs
- No changes to team from previous round
North Queensland Cowboys
AwayIns
- Jaxson Paulo, Kaiden Lahrs, Marly Bitungane, Nicholas Lenaz
Outs
- No changes to team from previous round
Why This Matters
Squad changes driving edge, totals and SGM angles.
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