Melbourne Storm vs Sydney Roosters Tips – Round 26
Storm chase minor premiership; Roosters fight to secure top 8 • FRI 8:00 PM AEST • AAMI Park
By FreeMultiTips • •AEST
- Storm 1-12 $2.80
- Under 42.5 $1.90
- Kane Bradley anytime try-scorer $2.10
Why: Rested Storm stars pull margin toward a grind; Roosters travel with rookie halves; expect Melbourne control and a narrow result; total shaded down by hooker swap and fewer elite finishers; right-edge finishing still live for one Storm winger.
Best Value Tryscorer
Kane Bradley anytime try-scorer
Other props: Ryan Papenhuyzen anytime ($1.96), Daniel Tupou anytime ($2.20), Mark Nawaqanitawase anytime ($2.10)
Match Preview
Tempo & Territory
Expect a territorial arm wrestle early. With Harry Grant rested, Melbourne lose some ruck speed but retain control through Munster and Wishart kicking to corners and Papenhuyzen returning long. AAMI Park and fine weather favour structure over chaos, so yardage sets and fifth-tackle discipline should matter. The Storm middles led by Utoikamanu and MacDonald will aim to neutralise Collins and Leniu, then play to Melbourne's preferred right-side shape where Anderson feeds Bradley. Roosters will lean into Connor Watson's tempo and Tedesco's backfield metres, but with a new Savala-Smith halves combo, their long kicking and last-play polish may be inconsistent. Expect Melbourne to own the red-zone count by squeezing errors, with NAS injecting second-phase off the bench once the ruck loosens.
Form, Stakes & H2H
Storm ride five straight wins and sit 2nd, chasing the Raiders for the minor premiership. Roosters are 8th and come off a flat 10-30 loss to the Eels after three sharp wins, making this a leverage game for their finals spot. The recent H2H is one-way: Storm have won seven straight and 5-0 across the last five, including 34-30 in Round 21. The Roosters' record at AAMI Park is lean (4 from 14). Melbourne are resting Meaney, Coates, Grant, Katoa and King, which trims their ceiling, but Papenhuyzen and Munster keep the floor high. The Tricolours keep their pack intact, get Daniel Tupou back, but lose Sam Walker; cohesion in the halves is the key unknown. Given both sides' recent totals profile, Storm games have skewed to controlled margins, while Roosters have mixed blowouts with grinds.
Lanes & Bets
Lane data is clear. Storm right-side attack ranks 1st and the Roosters concede more to opposition right wing than most (14), opening value for Kane Bradley at around $2.10 as the featured ATS. Conversely, the Roosters' right-side strike (2nd) challenges Melbourne's left-edge D (10th conceded), keeping Nawaqanitawase and Toia live as secondary angles. With Melbourne's finishing talent diluted by rests and a hooker downgrade, the total leans down from the market 42.5 despite fine conditions. Script: Storm control territory, win the middle on rotations, and finish enough on the right without blowing it open. Bets that fit that story: Storm 1-12, Under 42.5, and Bradley anytime. This aligns with a 20-12 to 24-18 type outcome where set-piece edges decide it and bench impact closes the door late.
Team Lists & Changes
Melbourne Storm
HomeIns
- Angus Hinchey, Bronson Garlick, Josiah Pahulu, Kane Bradley, Keagan Russell-Smith, Lazarus Vaalepu, Shawn Blore, Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown, Sualauvi Faalogo, Will Warbrick
Outs
- Eliesa Katoa, Harry Grant, Josh King, Nick Meaney, Tui Kamikamica, Xavier Coates
Sydney Roosters
AwayIns
- Blake Steep, Daniel Tupou, Sandon Smith, Taylor Losalu, Toby Rodwell, Tom Rodwell
Outs
- Junior Tupou, Sam Walker
Why This Matters
Squad changes driving edge, totals and SGM angles.
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