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New Zealand Warriors vs Parramatta Eels Tips – Round 26

Warriors chasing top-4 security; Eels in spoiler mode; Addo-Carr plays 200th. • FRI 4:00 PM AEST • Go Media Stadium

By FreeMultiTips • 30 Aug 2025, 7:29 pm •AEST

Same Game Multi

$8.40

Confidence 63%

Warriors 1-12 $2.80
Under 42.5 $1.91
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck anytime $1.78

Why: Top-4 stakes suggest a controlled, field-position win; Eels' right edge leaks to LW; RTS has strong strike vs Eels; defensive metrics point south of the number; margin containment favours 1-12.

Best Value Tryscorer

$1.78

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck anytime

Eels have conceded 20 tries to opposition LW RTS has 9 in his last 11 vs Eels Warriors left-edge usage profiles well.

Other props: Dallin Watene-Zelezniak anytime ($1.87), Adam Pompey anytime ($2.90), Wayde Egan anytime ($6.20)

Match Preview

Tempo & Territory

With fine conditions and a good surface at Go Media, expect a territory-first arm wrestle driven by long kicks and yardage sets. Moses’ boot has the Eels starting sets on the front foot when they earn momentum, but against top-4 sides they have struggled to draw first blood (0% score-first vs top 4) while the Warriors average a 50% strike overall. CNK and RTS will chew metres early, helping Boyd play off quicker rucks to isolate Eels edges. In the middle, Fisher-Harris and Vaimauga will look to win the contact against Paulo and Hopgood; whichever pack controls ruck speed should dictate tempo. Wayde Egan’s tempo changes and short-side raids are key in red zone; Parramatta will counter with Moses’ cross-field kicks for Lomax/Addo-Carr. Expect a measured pace rather than a track meet, with the Warriors targeting repeat sets and the Eels aiming to flip field position via long kicking and early kick pressure.

Form, Stakes & H2H

The Warriors have steadied with wins over the Titans (32-18) and Dragons (14-10) after a wobble, and sit 4th with the double chance in sight. Their path is simple: keep winning. The Eels, 14th, are playing for pride yet have scalps (Broncos 22-20, Cowboys 19-18, Roosters 30-10) showing a higher ceiling under Ryles when they connect defensively. H2H leans Parramatta (Eels 4 of last 5; Warriors only 2 of last 6 at Go Media), so complacency is off the table. Given trends, the most likely script is a narrow Warriors win rather than a blowout: Auckland hasn’t been an automatic bank, and the Eels’ recent improvements plus Moses’ game management point to a grind. Add milestone energy for Addo-Carr’s 200th and you get a competitive 80.

Lanes & Bets

Lane data clearly points left for the Warriors. Parramatta have conceded 20 tries to opposition left wingers and 14 to right wingers, aligning with RTS (LW) and DWZ (RW) as primary threats. Conversely, Eels’ right-side attack profiles poorly against the Warriors’ elite left-edge D (rank 1), curbing Parramatta’s outside strike. The Warriors’ attack ranks mid-table while their defence is top-5; the Eels’ attack is bottom-tier, nudging the total under market. Pricing implies a small line (H2H ~1.57), and our projection edges the Warriors by about a converted try, so Warriors -4.5 is live with a higher percentage of 1-12 results (Warriors’ win profile vs bottom 9 skews tight). Best bet package: Warriors 1-12, Under 42.5, and RTS anytime. Correlation: left-edge advantage, controlled tempo, and margin containment. Potential sweeteners: DWZ or Pompey anytime given Eels’ edge concessions; Egan offers long odds if the middle dominance forces a close-range craft try.

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