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North Queensland Cowboys vs Brisbane Broncos Tips – Round 26

Broncos chase top 4 double chance; Cowboys play spoiler; Cotter 100th. • SAT 7:35 PM AEST • Queensland Country Bank Stadium

By FreeMultiTips • 30 Aug 2025, 7:29 pm •AEST

Same Game Multi

$4.65

Confidence 65%

Broncos H2H $1.46
Over 49.5 $1.89
Deine Mariner Anytime Tryscorer $1.91

Why: Thin line edge so anchor H2H; pace and finishing point to Over; Mariner targets Cowboys' soft outer lane; rivalry intensity supports an up-tempo, edge-focused script.

Best Value Tryscorer

$1.91

Deine Mariner Anytime Tryscorer

Cowboys have conceded most to LW (19) Broncos LW has produced 20 tries Walsh feeds the left sweep and Mariner finishes well price sits in the sweet $1.85-$2.15 band.

Other props: Reece Walsh Anytime ($1.98), Kotoni Staggs Anytime ($2.35)

Match Preview

Tempo & Territory

Broncos project to start fast: they have scored first in 64% of games while the Cowboys score first 39%. With Payne Haas and Patrick Carrigan setting the ruck tempo, Brisbane can win the middle and give Reece Walsh clean ball to sweep left. Their recent totals (58, 66, 24, 74, 42) show big-interval scoring when they control yardage. North Queensland lean on Reece Robson’s service and Scott Drinkwater’s roam to spring edge shifts, with Tom Dearden’s short-side kicks a pressure valve. At home on a fine deck, the Cowboys can mount territory through Jason Taumalolo and Reuben Cotter, but they’ve leaked momentum sets this year, inviting shootouts. Expect Brisbane to shade possession early, shift to edges off quick play-the-balls, and the Cowboys to counter with broken-field strike and late-clock flurries.

Form, Stakes & H2H

Ladder context matters: Broncos sit 5th chasing a top-four lifeline; the Cowboys are outside the eight and playing spoiler. Brisbane’s last five include 46-12 (Knights) and 60-14 (Rabbitohs), indicating ceiling when they click; the Cowboys have been volatile but dangerous, with wins of 38-4 (Knights) and 34-28 (Wests Tigers). H2H is one-way: Broncos have won the last five meetings, including 26-16 in Round 3. Market sets Brisbane short at roughly $1.54 with Cowboys $2.49 and a headline total around 49.5. Nanai’s record against Brisbane is notable, and Kotoni Staggs arrives in try-scoring touch, while Cotter’s 100th adds emotional juice for the home pack.

Lanes & Bets

The lane data points to Brisbane’s left edge. The Cowboys have conceded heavily to LW (19), and their right-edge defence has wobbled all year, while the Broncos’ LW slot has produced 20 tries. That puts Deine Mariner in the frame at $1.91. Secondary strike sits on Brisbane’s right with Staggs, but price-wise Mariner fits better. With Broncos’ attack ranked 5th (4.68 tries per game) and Cowboys’ defence ranked 16th (4.78 conceded), the game profile leans Over 49.5. Sidewise the market -6.5 is close to fair; with a sub-2.0 edge we prefer an alt approach or H2H. Recommended: Broncos -4.5 as a safer lean, total Over 49.5, and Mariner anytime. SGM: Broncos H2H + Over 49.5 + Mariner ATTS. The narrative ties: Broncos win the middle, shift left for finishing, and total climbs via edge strikes and late-field fatigue on a fine surface.

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