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Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm Tips – Round 27

Broncos can lock top 4 with a win; Storm effectively set for 2nd but seek a response after Roosters loss; prime-time Suncorp spotlight. • THU 7:50 PM AEST • Suncorp Stadium

By FreeMultiTips • 6 Sept 2025, 3:14 pm •AEST

Same Game Multi

$6.50

Confidence 64%

Storm -2.5 $1.90
Over 48.5 $1.90
Will Warbrick anytime $2.00

Why: Right-edge Storm attack should pressure Broncos left; if Storm cover, game likely opens up and supports the Over; Warbrick finish correlates strongly with Storm margin and total.

Best Value Tryscorer

$2.00

Will Warbrick anytime

Storm right-side attack is ranked near the top and meets a Broncos left that is mid-pack Broncos concede most to RW (14) and Warbrick has 4 tries in his past 2 vs Broncos Hughes back turbocharges that edge shape.

Other props: Eliesa Katoa anytime ($2.60), Jesse Arthars anytime ($2.40), Josiah Karapani anytime ($2.05)

Match Preview

Tempo & Territory

Suncorp should play quick with a true fast deck and Fine weather. Brisbane have leaned into strike early in sets, using Haas-Carrigan to win rucks and unleashing Walsh out the back; that has produced 122 points across their past three wins. The problem is the Storm can slow yardage and march you off spots, and their best version compresses the ruck then snaps wide to the right. With Hughes returning, Melbourne regain their best yardage-to-good-ball conversion, and Munster will kick to corners to keep Walsh starting sets from deep. First-try timing vs each other has been later than average, hinting at an initial arm-wrestle, but both sides average near five tries per game across the season profiles, so once the game breaks open the pace can climb. Expect Melbourne to shade territory off a superior last-tackle polish and yardage discipline, while Brisbane chase momentum and broken play to generate line breaks.

Form, Stakes & H2H

The Broncos enter 4th and likely need a win to secure the double chance; the Storm sit 2nd and want a response after last week. Recent form splits are sharp: Broncos have piled points on the Cowboys, Knights and Dolphins but managed just 2 against this Storm in Round 23. Melbourne’s defensive run before the Roosters loss was elite, and historical context is heavy: Storm 4-1 across the last five, including 50-12 here in 2024, and Broncos have only one win in their past 18 against Melbourne. Thursday night trend also leans Storm. That said, Suncorp energy and Brisbane’s attack can force Melbourne into more possessions than they prefer, pulling the total up if the hosts convert red-zone pressure.

Lanes & Bets

The clearest lane is Storm right vs Broncos left: Katoa’s hard line inside Hughes plus Warbrick at the corner targets a Broncos left that sits mid-table and has conceded most to RW. Conversely, Brisbane’s right edge of Walters-Hunt-Staggs-Arthars gets a look at a Storm left that has leaked more than their right, giving Arthars value at price. Script: slight Storm territory edge, both edges generating tries once fatigue sets in. Bets align to that story: Storm -2.5 with the Over 48.5, and Will Warbrick anytime as the featured finisher. Value additions include Katoa anytime for a non-wing angle and Arthars anytime at overs. Overall lean: Storm by a try in a 26-24 to 30-22 type game.

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