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St George Illawarra Dragons vs Penrith Panthers Tips – Round 27

Panthers tune up for finals and can improve seeding; Dragons playing for pride at home. • SAT 3:00 PM AEST • WIN Stadium

By FreeMultiTips • 6 Sept 2025, 3:14 pm •AEST

Same Game Multi

$6.60

Confidence 64%

Panthers 13+ $1.73
Under 46.5 $1.90
Dylan Edwards anytime $2.30

Why: All legs tell the same story: Penrith territory dominance, controlled tempo, and left-sweep shapes creating FB support; 13+ pairs naturally with a lower total in fine afternoon conditions.

Best Value Tryscorer

$2.30

Dylan Edwards anytime try-scorer

Dragons have conceded most to FB (14) and are soft to edges Edwards sweeps on the left and trails line breaks wings are too short so FB offers fair value at near $2.30.

Other props: Casey McLean anytime ($2.20), Scott Sorensen anytime ($4.25), Panthers 1-12 ($3.15)

Match Preview

Tempo & Territory

Panthers get their engine room and kickers back, which usually means a territorial squeeze. With Leota and Smith punching yardage and Yeo linking to the halves, Penrith can win the ruck and kick on their terms through Cleary. Expect an emphasis on long kicks to corners, early set pressure, and repeat sets if the Dragons struggle with backfield carries. The Dragons middle (Klemmer, Guler, De Belin) can trade meters but their play-the-ball speed often stalls against elite wrestle. In fine afternoon conditions, error rate should be low and the game will be field-position led rather than chaotic. If Dragons are to flip momentum it likely comes via Cook’s ruck tempo, second-phase from Su'A/Leilua, and Sloan’s kick returns, but Penrith’s system typically blunts ad-lib raids by compressing the middle and sliding with numbers on edges.

Form, Stakes & H2H

The Dragons are 2-3 across the last five (big losses to Rabbitohs and Sea Eagles, gritty wins over Sharks and Raiders) and have still won three of their past four at WIN, so home comfort is non-trivial. Penrith are 2-3 across their last five, but that includes a mass rest last week; with the spine back they chase a cleaner finals entry from 8th. H2H leans Penrith heavily (7 of the last 8), including a 46-10 in 2024, though the Dragons did spring one upset that same season. Stakes-wise, the Panthers care more here: a professional, low-risk performance is the likely brief. That favors a grind-first template rather than a shootout, especially with To'o and Martin still sitting.

Lanes & Bets

Conceded-by-position flags the Dragons leaking to FB (14) and opposition RW (13), plus double-digit to both wings. Penrith’s best-priced scorer away from the short wings is the fullback: Edwards at around $2.30 fits the left-sweep story and kick-return threat. Panthers’ left (Alamoti/McLean/Sorensen) runs at the Dragons right (Tuipulotu/Buchanan) which has wobbled; McLean at $2.20 is the secondary angle. With Penrith’s defensive rank near the top and their intent to control, the total leans Under 46.5. The recommended approach: take an alt lean on the side rather than the main spread for price cleanliness (Panthers -10.5), pair a margin band in the multi (Panthers 13+) with Under 46.5, and anchor with Edwards anytime. Expected range 26-10 to 30-12 aligns with 13+ and the Under while still leaving room for the fullback to cross.

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