New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers Tips – Round 1
Elimination Final; sudden-death. • SAT 2:05 PM AEST • Go Media Stadium
By FreeMultiTips • •AEST
- Panthers -8.5 $1.90
- Over 43.5 $1.90
- Brian To'o anytime $1.95
Why: Cleary-led control plus Panthers right-edge strike points to a cover; expected lift in tempo via early territory advantage and edges finishing supports the Over and To'o.
Best Value Tryscorer
Brian To'o anytime
Other props: Paul Alamoti ($1.91), Roger Tuivasa-Sheck ($2.35), Dylan Edwards ($2.60)
Match Preview
Tempo & Territory
Expect Penrith to dictate yardage through their middle trio of Leota, Yeo, and Smith, building repeat sets and pinning the Warriors in exits. With Sommerton service tidy enough and Cleary’s long kicking squeezing backfield returns, territory should tilt Panthers early. The Warriors will lean on CNK’s kick returns and DWZ/RTS yardage to fight out of corners, but their last fortnight suggests difficulty sustaining pressure against top-8 packs. If Panthers earn early possession share, speed of ruck increases and Penrith shift right to Tago-To'o off quick play-the-balls. Warriors scoring looks most viable from contestable kicks to RTS and second-phase through Niukore on the right edge, but they’ll need improved set-end quality from Boyd and CHT to keep total possession near parity.
Form, Stakes & H2H
Stakes are sudden-death and Penrith’s finals muscle memory is undeniable. Warriors have dropped two straight to finals-calibre sides, while Penrith regain Brian To'o and Liam Martin after rest and manage without Mitch Kenny. H2H leans Panthers strongly across the past decade, and they handled the Round 16 meeting 28-18. Warriors’ season profile shows strong results vs bottom-9 but limited top-8 scalps since mid-season; Penrith’s wobble mid-year has steadied with key troops back. Egan’s return is significant for the Warriors’ ruck cohesion and red-zone decisions, but Penrith’s spine of Edwards-Cleary-Yeo tends to bank repeatable edges in September. Ladder context has Warriors 6th, Panthers 7th, but market strength prices Penrith like a superior team on neutral metrics, even away.
Lanes & Bets
Lane data flags Warriors conceding more on their left, aligning with Penrith’s right-edge strike of Cleary-Tago-To'o. That correlation underpins To'o anytime at near even-money. With line markets around Panthers -8.5 and total 43.5, our script favors Penrith by about 10-12 in a 46-50 total game: middle control, right-edge polish, and reliable goalkicking. Same game multi stays coherent: Panthers -8.5, Over 43.5, To'o anytime. Secondary ATS options include Alamoti on the opposite wing at value, and Edwards trailing through middle-lane breaks. Confidence is moderate given Warriors’ home lift and Egan’s return, but Penrith’s finals baseline and edge matchup keep the play on the visitor and points over the current number.
Team Lists & Changes
New Zealand Warriors
HomeIns
- Jackson Ford
- Wayde Egan
Outs
- Rocco Berry
Penrith Panthers
AwayIns
- Brian To'o
- Liam Martin
- Luke Sommerton
- Matthew Eisenhuth
Outs
- Daine Laurie
- Mavrik Geyer
- Mitch Kenny
Why This Matters
Squad changes driving edge, totals and SGM angles.